Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28ba…9fec
sports · 974 markets active 3h ago
0.5score
−$350 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$344 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$163
Realized−$344
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses445 / 511
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)956 / 974
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 16 History 956 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$52
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 60¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 38¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 20¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bayern München vs. Bayer Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Nuggets 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Natus Vincere 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner GamerLegion 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$14 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $21 +$25 +116%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$26 +126%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $15 +$15 +101%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$9 +93%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $5 +$8 +158%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $15 +$11 +73%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $10 +$10 +100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $20 +$18 +89%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $20 +$24 +116%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Mar 13 $9 +$6 +66%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Mar 13 $5 +$4 +75%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 13 $2 +$10 +480%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $10 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 13 $5 +$4 +85%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 12 $10 +$9 +92%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Mar 12 $5 +$5 +95%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 12 $5 +$9 +185%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Mar 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 11 $20 +$52 +261%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 11 $22 +$9 +41%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% −$334
other 10% −$34
crypto 2% +$31
world 1% +$8
politics 0% −$19
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 5¢ $1 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $15 13h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $24 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 40h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $46 4d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 6¢ $5 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 45¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 45¢ $11 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 0¢ $1 4d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 44¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 99¢ $46 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 43¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $10 6d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $31 6d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $15 6d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $15 6d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 59¢ $10 6d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $10 7d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 100¢ $13 7d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 36¢ $10 7d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $15 7d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +24.8% +12.9% 58% 58% +18.5%
≤30d 26 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 46% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 46% -9.6%
all 956 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 46% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 46% -15.7%
10% -22.7% 46% -23.7%
15% -30.2% 46% -31.1%
20% -37.0% 45% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.58 · official $163.58 (match) · 1627 history records