Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28ba…d4fb crypto 894 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,472 (-5%) realized −$2,472 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%379W / 514L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day81.4pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,374
7 days−$2,374
14 days−$2,044
30 days−$3,464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$4,322
sports 8% +$398
other 1% −$15
politics 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -61.0% -64.8% 17% 17% -58.6%
≤30d 789 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 39% -16.5%
≤90d 893 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 39% -16.6%
all 893 -6.8% -15.7% 42% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 39% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 38% -24.6%
15% -31.1% 36% -31.9%
20% -37.9% 33% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$44 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$2,472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses379 / 514
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)893 / 894
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day81.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 893 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$73 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $159 +$47 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$59 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$92 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $107 +$86 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$43 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$44 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$71 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$41 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $168 +$179 +106%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $75 +$37 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$32 -60%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$70 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $99 −$92 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $388 −$388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$40 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $159 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $66 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $153 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $20 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $194 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $70 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $127 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $64 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $116 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $75 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $274 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.62 · official $47.62 (match) · 3500 history records