Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28bc…c1b8
weather · 203 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$308 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$308 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses67 / 119
Open positions17
Markets (closed)186 / 203
History coverage17d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 17 History 186 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$178
14 days−$220
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? No 64¢ 66¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 69¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$7 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? No 69¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+180%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? No 66¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? No 65¢ 63¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? No 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 87¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $13 +$35 +273%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$6 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$6 +381%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $30 +$10 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$6 +585%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$200
weather 18% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $15 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $25 44h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 72¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 68¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -21.0% -28.5% 33% 31% -43.3%
≤30d 186 -12.6% -21.0% 36% 25% -17.3%
≤90d 186 -12.6% -21.0% 36% 25% -17.3%
all 186 -12.6% -21.0% 36% 25% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 25% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 20% -25.2%
15% -35.4% 12% -32.5%
20% -41.8% 9% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.18 · official $63.10 (match) · 1115 history records