Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28be…6dbe other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$250 (-31%) realized −$204 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$275
sports 38% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +9.5% -0.9% 56% 50% -51.0%
≤30d 18 +9.5% -0.9% 56% 50% -51.0%
≤90d 18 +9.5% -0.9% 56% 50% -51.0%
all 18 +9.5% -0.9% 56% 50% -51.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 50% -51.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 50% -55.7%
15% -19.0% 39% -60.0%
20% -27.0% 28% -63.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$42 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Cezar Cretu 63¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jelena Ostapenko 43¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tanger: Reda Bennani vs Sean Cuenin Jun 26 $50 −$7 -14%
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek Jun 26 $52 −$18 -35%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $137 −$90 -66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $137 −$90 -66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $61 −$20 -33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 +$3 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $3 $0 -7%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $15 +$9 +60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 25 $20 +$8 +40%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27 +$26 +99%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 $0 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$3 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu BUY Cezar Cretu 63¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 43¢ $48 1h
ITF Tanger: Reda Bennani vs Sean Cuenin SELL Sean Cuenin 58¢ $30 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko SELL Jelena Ostapenko 59¢ $7 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko SELL Jelena Ostapenko 59¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko SELL Jelena Ostapenko 59¢ $37 1h
ITF Tanger: Reda Bennani vs Sean Cuenin SELL Sean Cuenin 72¢ $13 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 63¢ $51 2h
ITF Tanger: Reda Bennani vs Sean Cuenin BUY Sean Cuenin 71¢ $50 2h
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek SELL Eva Marie Voracek 43¢ $34 3h
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek BUY Eva Marie Voracek 65¢ $52 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $40 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $23 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 34¢ $45 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $46 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $41 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $2 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $3 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.45 · official $50.45 (match) · 70 history records