Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28bf…4a4e
weather · 974 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$10,296 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,455 · open −$4,720
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$895
Realized−$5,455
Unrealized−$4,720
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses11 / 72
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions486
Markets (closed)83 / 974
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2339.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 486 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,455
7 days−$5,455
14 days−$5,455
30 days−$5,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 87¢ 93¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+7%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 84¢ 93¢ $63 $69 +$7 (+11%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 80¢ 90¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+12%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 85¢ 87¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Will FC Barcelona win Liga Endesa? Yes 5¢ 36¢ $9 $63 +$54 (+610%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? No 98¢ 97¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day? No 96¢ 96¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 94¢ 96¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No 83¢ 87¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 74¢ 80¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No 53¢ 40¢ $32 $24 −$8 (-24%)
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election? Yes 5¢ 28¢ $4 $21 +$18 (+498%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 21¢ 24¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+112%)
Will Joventut Badalona win Liga Endesa? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Miles McBride lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+94%)
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+895%)
Will La Laguna Tenerife win Liga Endesa? Yes 5¢ 24¢ $1 $3 +$3 (+370%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Yes 14¢ 97¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+579%)
Will Amazon have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 92¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+362%)
Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? Yes 6¢ 98¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1667%)
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-71%)
Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+168%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +2473%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1000%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1202%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 +900%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1692%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 12 $0 $0 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1003%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1003%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +4036%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $17 −$17 -96%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $179 −$179 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $222 −$222 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$18 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -75%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $232 −$232 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $316 −$316 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $170 −$169 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 31% −$4,520
other 26% −$4,417
tech 10% −$835
world 8% −$700
politics 8% −$767
sports 6% +$1,214
finance 6% +$8
culture 3% −$163
economics 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $5 0m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 100¢ $30 1m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 84¢ $38 1m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 87¢ $26 1m
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 81¢ $17 1m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? BUY No 96¢ $29 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 95¢ $29 2m
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3m
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 91¢ $27 3m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $12 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 84¢ $25 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $30 4m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $19 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $30 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 85¢ $26 4m
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? BUY No 96¢ $72 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 6¢ $2 5m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 20¢ $6 6m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 23¢ $7 6m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $25 6m
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $26 6m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $27 7m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $29 7m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 24¢ $2 7m
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.5B and $3.0B at market cl BUY No 100¢ $10 7m
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? BUY No 85¢ $9 7m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 95¢ $10 8m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 10¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +63.7% +48.1% 13% 13% -77.1%
≤30d 83 +63.7% +48.1% 13% 13% -77.1%
≤90d 83 +63.7% +48.1% 13% 13% -77.1%
all 83 +63.7% +48.1% 13% 13% -77.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2339.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.1% 13% -77.1%
10% ← realistic here +33.9% 13% -79.3%
15% +21.0% 13% -81.3%
20% +9.1% 13% -83.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $894.56 · official $880.85 · 3500 history records