Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:07:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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28 0x28bf…cb7e crypto 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$300 (-4%) realized −$264 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%105W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$73
14 days+$333
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$386
other 1% +$12
sports 1% −$27
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.3% -2.9% 56% 56% -1.4%
≤30d 51 -9.2% -17.8% 49% 47% -14.7%
≤90d 181 +5.3% -4.7% 58% 54% -13.9%
all 181 +5.3% -4.7% 58% 54% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 54% -13.9%
10% -13.8% 51% -22.2%
15% -22.2% 45% -29.7%
20% -29.8% 35% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$34 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses105 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)181 / 186
History coverage56d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $77 +$52 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$37 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $124 +$79 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$79 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $154 +$97 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $78 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $178 +$83 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 24 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $254 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 24 $254 −$89 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 24 $36 +$39 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 24 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 24 $129 +$109 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 24 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 24 $153 +$60 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 24 $102 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 24 $252 +$222 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $130 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.56 · official $38.59 (match) · 606 history records