Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28c0…774d world 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate80%36W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$32
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% +$25
world 28% −$157
other 13% +$59
crypto 10% +$33
economics 7% +$49
finance 3% +$5
sports 0% −$12
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.3% +0.7% 100% 33% -4.5%
≤30d 19 -0.7% -10.1% 74% 21% -9.1%
≤90d 34 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 12% -10.0%
all 45 -4.9% -14.0% 80% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 11% -9.6%
10% -22.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$29 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$2,220
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses36 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)45 / 61
History coverage145d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $430 $434 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $370 $359 −$11 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $358 $355 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 87¢ $170 $177 +$7 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 85¢ 80¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $79 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 76¢ 78¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 87¢ 95¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+9%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 87¢ 87¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $108 +$9 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $11 +$3 +24%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 15 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $489 +$4 +1%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $366 −$18 -5%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $150 +$31 +21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $76 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $440 +$2 +0%
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? Jun 05 $345 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $48 −$38 -79%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 05 $111 +$16 +15%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 05 $492 +$5 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $40 −$7 -16%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 27 $86 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 25 $280 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 25 $300 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 21 $190 +$4 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 14 $297 +$13 +4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 12 $249 +$7 +3%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 08 $10 $0 +4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 08 $250 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? May 08 $320 +$8 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $139 +$14 +10%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $580 +$32 +6%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $150 +$14 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 02 $180 −$180 -100%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $98 +$2 +2%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $110 +$7 +6%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $194 +$11 +6%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Mar 16 $989 +$4 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 16 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $80 +$12 +15%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 08 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 02 $400 +$21 +5%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Feb 06 $1,001 +$4 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 02 $591 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 87¢ $29 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $149 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? BUY No 97¢ $79 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $115 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 76¢ $61 2h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $182 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $429 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $360 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 87¢ $7 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $58 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $79 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 4d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? BUY No 87¢ $39 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $174 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $503 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $11 5d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $126 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $494 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,219.73 · official $2,219.70 (match) · 479 history records