Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28ca…5d19 other 728 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9,395 (+3%) realized +$13,569 · open −$4,174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%342W / 72L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day100.3pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$84,265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% +$33,821
other 32% −$4,195
sports 5% +$2,030
world 2% +$980
culture 2% −$358
tech 0% +$104
crypto 0% +$71
finance 0% +$74
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -3.7% -12.9% 79% 29% +2.5%
≤30d 414 +36.1% +23.1% 83% 33% +5.4%
≤90d 414 +36.1% +23.1% 83% 33% +5.4%
all 414 +36.1% +23.1% 83% 33% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.1% 33% +5.4%
10% +11.3% 21% -4.7%
15% ← realistic here +0.6% 14% -13.9%
20% -9.3% 11% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +66% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$186 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$84,265
Realized+$13,569
Unrealized−$4,174
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses342 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions467
Markets (closed)414 / 728
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$389
Trades / day100.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 467 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 TOUR Championship? No 98¢ 93¢ $3,864 $3,683 −$180 (-5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $3,206 $3,485 +$279 (+9%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 87¢ 99¢ $2,919 $3,340 +$421 (+14%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 40¢ 66¢ $1,849 $3,029 +$1,181 (+64%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 72¢ 79¢ $2,591 $2,843 +$252 (+10%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,468 $2,574 +$106 (+4%)
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 74¢ 100¢ $1,863 $2,512 +$648 (+35%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $2,217 $2,246 +$29 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 73¢ 70¢ $2,297 $2,221 −$76 (-3%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 92¢ $1,766 $1,909 +$142 (+8%)
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,835 $1,838 +$4 (+0%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 66¢ $2,136 $1,672 −$464 (-22%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $1,494 $1,662 +$167 (+11%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 85¢ 70¢ $2,003 $1,649 −$354 (-18%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1,539 $1,587 +$49 (+3%)
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Travelers Championship? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,363 $1,406 +$44 (+3%)
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,163 $1,199 +$36 (+3%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 62¢ $1,278 $1,130 −$149 (-12%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $875 $1,042 +$167 (+19%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 84¢ 78¢ $982 $907 −$75 (-8%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 91¢ 94¢ $858 $883 +$25 (+3%)
Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? No 70¢ 96¢ $569 $777 +$208 (+37%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 66¢ 61¢ $819 $756 −$63 (-8%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 73¢ 22¢ $2,396 $739 −$1,657 (-69%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 62¢ 80¢ $504 $643 +$140 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto? Jun 25 $12 +$4 +35%
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 25 $337 −$337 -100%
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 25 $858 −$858 -100%
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 25 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $32 +$16 +48%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the Wo Jun 25 $454 +$217 +48%
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $19 +$2 +13%
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 24 $125 +$45 +36%
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 24 $95 +$1 +2%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? Jun 24 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Brayden Burries be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Anthony Constantino be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 24 $273 +$72 +27%
Will Hannes Steinbach be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
NBA: 1st Overall Pick in 2026 Draft to be Traded? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $32 −$22 -69%
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 24 $15 −$5 -34%
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Darius Acuff Jr. be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Nate Ament be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Cameron Carr be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $54 −$5 -9%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $1,841 −$1,358 -74%
Will Morez Johnson Jr. be drafted with the 9th pick in the 2026 NBA Dr Jun 24 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $1,388 −$901 -65%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $982 −$982 -100%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 24 $3,108 −$3,108 -100%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $111 +$14 +13%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 24 $3,157 +$291 +9%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 24 $695 +$176 +25%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $894 +$113 +13%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $770 +$227 +30%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $3,290 +$604 +18%
Will Glenn Ivey be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 24 $107 +$10 +9%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $1,525 +$724 +48%
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Jun 24 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $5,081 −$416 -8%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 24 $230 +$66 +28%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 24 $658 +$82 +12%
Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 24 $574 +$132 +23%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 24 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Joseph Gomes be the Democratic nominee for MD-04? Jun 24 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 24 $429 +$86 +20%
Will Austin Dyches be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Hannes Steinbach be drafted with the 14th pick in the 2026 NBA Dr Jun 24 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Max Diaz be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $499 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 48¢ $36 2m
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 29¢ $28 23m
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 29¢ $43 23m
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 29¢ $4 24m
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY Yes 29¢ $11 24m
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $3 25m
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 31m
Will "I Will Find You" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 91¢ $23 40m
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $12 46m
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 48¢ $17 47m
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 48¢ $6 48m
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $38 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $94 1h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 47¢ $7 1h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 27¢ $5 1h
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 47¢ $23 1h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $209 1h
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $93 1h
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 97¢ $19 1h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $175 2h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $40 2h
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY No 95¢ $38 2h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY No 93¢ $34 3h
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 5h
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $46 6h
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 86¢ $70 7h
Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 21¢ $54 7h
Will Caitlin Clark have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $17 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84,264.97 · official $84,120.32 (match) · 3500 history records