Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28ce…26c2 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,002 (-2%) realized −$2,005 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate28%40W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$810per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$866now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$58
other 35% +$195
sports 14% −$2,149
economics 4% −$3
world 3% −$4
crypto 2% +$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -1.8% -11.2% 12% 0% -11.0%
all 143 +1.3% -8.4% 28% 10% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 10% -11.1%
10% -17.2% 9% -19.6%
15% -25.2% 8% -27.4%
20% -32.5% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,370) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$866
Realized−$2,005
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses40 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage154d
Avg bet$810
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $863 $866 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $271 $0 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 27 $275 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $440 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,110 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,315 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,805 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,051 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,837 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,966 −$3 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $620 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,998 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $157 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $245 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $459 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $676 +$1 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $237 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,787 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $301 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 24 $307 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $349 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,685 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $5,700 −$8 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,728 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 04 $489 +$1 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $480 +$1 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,920 −$2 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,506 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,276 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,479 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,186 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,469 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $271 1h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 100¢ $274 2h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $271 2h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $275 5h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $474 5h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $474 8h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $439 23h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $440 26h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $476 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $477 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $533 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $534 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $552 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $553 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $864 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,360 12d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,361 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,187 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,189 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,549 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,551 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,190 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,235 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,191 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,193 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,010 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $866.43 · official $866.43 (match) · 441 history records