Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28ce…7824 crypto 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$957 (+13%) realized +$957 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%177W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$611
sports 18% −$533
world 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +7.7% -2.5% 51% 43% -1.0%
≤30d 82 +7.7% -2.5% 51% 43% -1.0%
≤90d 212 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 47% -18.4%
all 372 +3.3% -6.5% 48% 44% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 44% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 41% -31.2%
15% -23.7% 37% -37.9%
20% -31.1% 32% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$957
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses177 / 195
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)372 / 372
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 372 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$5 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$5 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $43 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$5 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$7 +127%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$9 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$7 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$12 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $46 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $54 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records