Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28d0…4955 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-18%) realized −$62 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$89
world 3% +$1
economics 2% −$1
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -43.1% -48.5% 24% 24% -40.8%
≤30d 21 -43.1% -48.5% 24% 24% -40.8%
≤90d 21 -43.1% -48.5% 24% 24% -40.8%
all 21 -43.1% -48.5% 24% 24% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.5% 24% -40.8%
10% ← realistic here -53.4% 24% -46.5%
15% -57.9% 24% -51.6%
20% -62.0% 19% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$18 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$30 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$36 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$10 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 59m
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $4 1h
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.04 · official $50.04 (match) · 76 history records