Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
28 0x28d2…fa4b sports 71 markets active 19h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+9%) realized +$25 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%22W / 39L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$17
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$2
sports 34% +$30
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.0% -24.9% 33% 33% -0.2%
≤30d 61 +21.6% +10.0% 36% 36% -3.0%
≤90d 61 +21.6% +10.0% 36% 36% -3.0%
all 61 +21.6% +10.0% 36% 36% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 36% -3.0%
10% -0.5% 33% -12.3%
15% -10.1% 33% -20.8%
20% -18.9% 28% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses22 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)61 / 71
History coverage13d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 28¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+78%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -61%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 +$13 +156%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 −$4 -39%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $6 −$3 -60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$18 -60%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$5 -51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 +$8 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 19h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 42h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 42h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 42h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 42h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $7 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $6 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.97 · official $31.98 (match) · 132 history records