Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28dc…357b sports 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+1%) realized +$118 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%153W / 113L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$687
7 days−$862
14 days−$133
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$198
other 10% −$132
crypto 4% −$56
finance 1% +$4
tech 0% +$12
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -42.4% -47.9% 31% 27% -20.2%
≤30d 110 -10.0% -18.6% 49% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 266 +0.6% -9.0% 58% 54% -9.3%
all 266 +0.6% -9.0% 58% 54% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 54% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 47% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 39% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 28% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses153 / 113
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions2
Markets (closed)266 / 268
History coverage69d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 32¢ 66¢ $100 $206 +$106 (+106%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 73¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $69 −$56 -81%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $283 −$283 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $212 −$153 -72%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $642 −$9 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -82%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $322 +$4 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $101 −$95 -94%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $305 −$197 -65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$12 +29%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $401 +$26 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $381 +$45 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $548 +$80 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $586 −$203 -35%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$14 -67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $202 +$76 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $301 +$29 +10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $178 +$238 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$158 -31%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$5 -22%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $40 +$20 +52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 +$16 +52%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$14 +34%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$17 -83%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Galions vs TLN Pirates - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: BIG vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$18 -50%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 32¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 62¢ $50 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $48 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 59¢ $13 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 32¢ $39 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 82¢ $19 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $19 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 88¢ $110 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 17¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $101 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $211 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $192 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 95¢ $190 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 67¢ $137 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 62¢ $135 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 50¢ $112 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $116 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 85¢ $100 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 38¢ $98 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $201 33h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 84¢ $171 43h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group SELL M80 54¢ $124 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 45h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 55¢ $283 45h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 68¢ $101 45h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY M80 57¢ $51 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.32 · official $168.82 · 641 history records