Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x28dd…c9f0 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$985 (-10%) realized −$985 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%35W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$991
crypto 44% +$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 0% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -21.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -29.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -35.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$993 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$2,538
Realized−$985
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses35 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage614d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $813 $813 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $726 $726 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $555 $549 −$6 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $444 $449 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 10 $88 $0 +0%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Feb 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 20 $4 $0 +1%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Feb 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Feb 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Feb 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Feb 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Feb 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Feb 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Feb 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Feb 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Feb 20 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Feb 20 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 05 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 16 $246 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $552 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 03 $550 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $5,010 −$993 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $726 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $813 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $555 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $444 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $72 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $44 100d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 100d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 100d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $29 118d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 118d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $44 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $88 118d
Will Tencent have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 276d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 276d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 276d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 99¢ $13 276d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 276d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $21 276d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $35 276d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 95¢ $55 276d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? BUY No 99¢ $13 276d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 276d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 276d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 99¢ $4 276d
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $8 276d
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $12 276d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $7 276d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,537.69 · official $2,537.91 (match) · 83 history records