Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
28 0x28e0…2e6b sports 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,509 (-4%) realized −$1,440 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%74W / 78L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$518est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$372
7 days−$123
14 days−$529
30 days−$1,574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,939
other 4% +$255
world 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 50% -11.5%
≤30d 152 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 46% -13.5%
≤90d 152 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 46% -13.5%
all 152 +1.9% -7.8% 49% 46% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 46% -13.5%
10% -16.6% 44% -21.8%
15% -24.7% 39% -29.4%
20% -32.0% 36% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$227 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized−$1,440
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses74 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$518
Open positions4
Markets (closed)152 / 156
History coverage28d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 64¢ 50¢ $256 $198 −$58 (-23%)
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Magdalena Frech 26¢ 28¢ $130 $142 +$12 (+10%)
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Sinja Kraus 33¢ 32¢ $132 $126 −$6 (-5%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Hannah Klugman 40¢ 28¢ $56 $38 −$18 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $85 +$15 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $108 −$108 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 21 $323 −$323 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $64 +$16 +24%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $157 +$92 +59%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $141 +$159 +112%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $194 +$172 +88%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $103 +$91 +88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $145 +$65 +45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $156 −$156 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 20 $211 −$211 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $131 +$214 +163%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $206 +$168 +82%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 19 $165 −$165 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 19 $140 −$140 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $142 +$427 +300%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $74 −$1 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $216 −$216 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $236 −$236 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 +$14 +16%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $198 +$223 +113%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $156 +$44 +28%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $230 +$269 +117%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $140 +$360 +257%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $162 +$156 +96%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $132 +$168 +127%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $47 +$53 +113%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$48 +32%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $133 +$67 +51%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $148 +$70 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $220 −$220 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $167 −$167 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 14 $189 −$189 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 13 $123 −$71 -58%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $49 +$76 +157%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $492 +$7 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $177 −$177 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova BUY Hannah Klugman 40¢ $57 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $256 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $90 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $0 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $0 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $7 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $12 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $5 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $2 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $15 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $0 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Sinja Kraus 33¢ $0 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 9h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $128 20h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Magdalena Frech 26¢ $2 20h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 100¢ $300 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 80¢ $64 21h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 47¢ $141 21h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 63¢ $133 21h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 63¢ $7 21h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 63¢ $17 21h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $366 21h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 53¢ $194 24h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 100¢ $195 24h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 53¢ $80 26h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 53¢ $23 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 60¢ $108 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $145 32h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Felix Gill 30¢ $24 45h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 52¢ $84 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.94 · official $504.99 (match) · 696 history records