Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28e1…6b68
crypto · 27 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Up 82¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Down 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 82¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $16 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -13.6% -21.8% 60% 56% -15.4%
≤30d 25 -13.6% -21.8% 60% 56% -15.4%
≤90d 25 -13.6% -21.8% 60% 56% -15.4%
all 25 -13.6% -21.8% 60% 56% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 56% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 32% -23.5%
15% -36.2% 20% -30.9%
20% -42.4% 12% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.86 · official $14.86 (match) · 87 history records