Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28e3…881a sports 366 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$766 (-6%) realized −$724 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%128W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$129
14 days−$2
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$10
other 15% −$755
economics 6% −$4
crypto 1% −$24
politics 1% −$1
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -19.2% -26.9% 22% 22% +2.7%
≤30d 41 -32.5% -38.9% 22% 20% -26.8%
≤90d 48 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 19% -35.9%
all 357 -3.3% -12.5% 36% 35% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 35% -15.8%
10% -20.9% 34% -23.9%
15% -28.5% 34% -31.2%
20% -35.5% 32% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$28 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized−$724
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses128 / 229
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions9
Markets (closed)357 / 366
History coverage276d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $150 $129 −$21 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +325%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $103 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$17 -80%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $204 +$419 +206%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 +$73 +356%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 −$4 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $404 −$400 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $173 +$238 +138%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $100 +$6 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$109 +107%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$84 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $66 −$65 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $51 +$109 +213%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 22 $30 +$43 +145%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 37h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 37h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $56 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.16 · official $878.16 (match) · 582 history records