Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28e6…0210 crypto 750 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,729 (-2%) realized −$1,662 · open −$67
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%485W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$184
14 days+$184
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% +$30
crypto 9% −$1,538
sports 2% +$315
tech 2% −$151
other 1% −$145
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.3% -9.2% 59% 56% +0.2%
≤30d 43 +3.4% -6.5% 60% 58% +0.5%
≤90d 196 +7.8% -2.5% 63% 57% -2.4%
all 746 +4.8% -5.2% 65% 56% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 56% -11.1%
10% -14.3% 42% -19.6%
15% -22.5% 30% -27.4%
20% -30.1% 20% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$1,662
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses485 / 261
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)746 / 750
History coverage612d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 100¢ $112 $130 +$18 (+16%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 86¢ 38¢ $112 $49 −$63 (-56%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 26¢ $38 $16 −$22 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $81 +$55 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$50 +50%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $113 +$47 +41%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $98 −$97 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $104 +$26 +25%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $76 −$76 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal Jun 23 $76 +$34 +45%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $61 +$49 +81%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $68 +$32 +47%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 −$6 -45%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +51%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $131 +$60 +46%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $51 +$148 +290%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $129 +$33 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $11 +$8 +77%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$40 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $82 −$37 -45%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5 Jun 21 $16 +$14 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 −$103 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $74 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $19 −$3 -15%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $29 −$10 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $15 +$5 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $13 +$6 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 31 $6 +$4 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $19 +$7 +39%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 29 $12 +$8 +66%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 27 $7 +$3 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $21 +$9 +41%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $26 +$19 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $15 +$4 +29%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 23 $12 +$8 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 20? May 20 $8 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $38 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $93 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $18 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $112 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $31 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $160 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $98 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 66¢ $100 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $113 10h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $104 31h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $19 31h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 31h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $56 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $24 34h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $76 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 52¢ $51 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal BUY 68¢ $76 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $68 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY 55¢ $61 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $11 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 55¢ $11 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $129 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.28 · official $194.28 (match) · 2162 history records