Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28ee…7d5d other 364 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-2%) realized −$100 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%345W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$63
crypto 16% −$31
sports 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 363 -1.7% -11.1% 95% 4% -11.4%
≤90d 363 -1.7% -11.1% 95% 4% -11.4%
all 363 -1.7% -11.1% 95% 4% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -11.4%
10% -19.6% 0% -19.9%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses345 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)363 / 364
History coverage25d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 93¢ $72 $95 +$23 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$3 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$2 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +9%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $72 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 22d
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 22d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 22d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 22d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 22d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 22d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 22d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 23d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 23d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 23d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 23d
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 23d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 23d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 23d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 23d
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 23d
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.53 · official $94.53 (match) · 709 history records