Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28f1…25eb other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$45
sports 22% −$19
politics 10% −$4
culture 7% −$9
economics 6% −$7
crypto 6% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage138d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $420 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $204 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $156 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $887 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $516 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $329 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $172 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $231 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $388 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $101 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $153 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 56m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 3h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 4h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 5h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 8h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 10h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 13h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 14h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 17h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 20h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 22h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 23h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 29h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 36h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 38h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 41h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 41h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 43h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 44h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 46h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 47h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.15 · official $58.15 (match) · 1416 history records