Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28f5…2035 crypto 447 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 261d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,261 (-3%) realized −$6,261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate59%264W / 183L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days−$400
14 days−$378
30 days−$568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$2,866
crypto 21% −$2,675
sports 8% −$693
politics 1% −$22
world 1% +$2
tech 0% −$78
culture 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 41% -18.8%
≤30d 99 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 53% -14.4%
≤90d 113 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 52% -13.3%
all 447 +0.2% -9.3% 59% 29% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 29% -12.5%
10% -18.0% 25% -20.8%
15% -25.9% 21% -28.5%
20% -33.2% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$105 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses264 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)447 / 447
History coverage261d ⚠
Avg bet$453
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 447 Trades
no open positions (74 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $99 −$73 -73%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $85 +$49 +58%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $317 +$108 +34%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $196 −$6 -3%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $211 +$46 +22%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $505 −$82 -16%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $97 +$35 +36%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $258 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $94 +$21 +22%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $219 +$33 +15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $105 +$45 +43%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $46 −$16 -35%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $219 −$27 -12%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $66 −$13 -20%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $61 −$48 -80%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$15 -73%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $187 +$66 +35%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $104 +$31 +29%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $201 +$50 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $123 −$16 -13%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $101 +$13 +12%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$2 -23%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $98 +$52 +54%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $97 −$96 -99%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $97 +$33 +34%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $7 +$37 +528%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $98 +$42 +43%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $98 +$42 +43%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $97 +$83 +86%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $96 −$50 -52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $97 +$53 +55%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $420 −$129 -31%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $99 −$98 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $103 +$33 +32%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $71 +$55 +77%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3 +$1 +35%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $48 +$47 +97%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $49 +$15 +30%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $34 +$11 +33%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $98 +$42 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 64¢ $9 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 64¢ $35 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 64¢ $18 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 64¢ $40 7h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $99 7h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 90¢ $135 7h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 57¢ $71 7h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 57¢ $4 7h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 57¢ $11 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 90¢ $42 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 90¢ $100 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 90¢ $70 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 90¢ $10 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 90¢ $79 7h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 54¢ $81 8h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 32¢ $48 8h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 30¢ $45 8h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 49¢ $92 8h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 50¢ $75 8h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 66¢ $99 8h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 90¢ $158 27h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 75¢ $105 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Inner Circle 31¢ $10 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Inner Circle 31¢ $56 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Inner Circle 45¢ $94 27h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 87¢ $100 27h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 70¢ $106 27h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 34¢ $38 29h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 34¢ $12 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records