Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28f7…404d sports 534 markets active 20h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$138 (+3%) realized +$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%236W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$62
14 days+$98
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 202 -4.0% -13.2% 45% 44% -12.7%
≤30d 534 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 43% -8.3%
≤90d 534 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 43% -8.3%
all 534 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 43% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 43% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 41% -17.1%
15% -24.7% 40% -25.1%
20% -32.0% 36% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses236 / 298
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)534 / 534
History coverage20d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 534 Trades
no open positions (279 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 +$7 +238%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $6 +$10 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $3 +$4 +146%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $37 −$7 -19%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 +$4 +197%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $12 −$7 -57%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +122%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $6 +$9 +152%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 17 $6 +$5 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $15 −$11 -72%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $11 −$3 -27%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$5 -45%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $12 −$5 -41%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $8 +$7 +85%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 17 $6 +$9 +152%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $9 +$6 +70%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $15 +$15 +96%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$9 +180%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$3 +325%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$13 +325%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $10 +$10 +94%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $13 +$9 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $18 +$4 +20%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $6 +$5 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $12 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ $11 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 37¢ $1 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 37¢ $2 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 31¢ $2 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ $3 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $11 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 37¢ $7 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 63¢ $7 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 29¢ $3 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 37¢ $6 20h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $11 20h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $1 20h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $2 20h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 39¢ $3 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $6 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 20h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 20h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 35¢ $5 21h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $5 21h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 20¢ $1 21h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) SELL San Diego Padres 51¢ $7 21h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 63¢ $8 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $3 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $3 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1189 history records