Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28f8…b5f7 weather 800 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$500 (-4%) realized −$500 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate60%477W / 323L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day56.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$105
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$781
weather 49% +$29
other 1% −$2
politics 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +744.7% +664.2% 75% 75% +5.5%
≤30d 25 +357.8% +314.2% 64% 64% -4.7%
≤90d 800 +7.5% -2.7% 60% 30% -15.6%
all 800 +7.5% -2.7% 60% 30% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 30% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 23% -23.7%
15% -20.5% 21% -31.0%
20% -28.3% 19% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses477 / 323
Open positions0
Markets (closed)800 / 800
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day56.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 800 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $287 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $296 +$48 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $101 −$99 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$38 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $108 +$21 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $107 +$12 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$29 +28%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $107 +$29 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $234 +$45 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $237 +$29 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $237 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $96 −$93 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $107 +$19 +18%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $78 −$28 -36%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $81 −$36 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 30 $75 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $81 +$16 +19%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 30 $78 −$32 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5PM ET May 16 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET May 13 $11 +$6 +51%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET May 13 $13 +$7 +50%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $6 +$4 +76%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 13 $119 +$65 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 13 $5 +$5 +111%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 13 $7 +$3 +44%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 13 $54 −$20 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 13 $6 +$4 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $333 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $223 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $101 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $139 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $108 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $117 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $108 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $107 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $128 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $104 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.38 · official $56.38 (match) · 3500 history records