Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x28fa…7190 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,053 (+9%) realized +$1,053 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 34L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$897
7 days−$376
14 days+$353
30 days+$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$829
sports 36% +$87
crypto 4% −$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +25.8% +13.8% 54% 54% -17.8%
≤30d 67 +6.4% -3.7% 49% 49% -4.7%
≤90d 67 +6.4% -3.7% 49% 49% -4.7%
all 67 +6.4% -3.7% 49% 49% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 49% -4.7%
10% -13.0% 46% -13.8%
15% -21.4% 46% -22.1%
20% -29.1% 40% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$120 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,053
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 34
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage14d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $102 +$171 +168%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $284 −$278 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $102 +$297 +291%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $203 +$142 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $102 −$49 -48%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $202 +$92 +46%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$84 +83%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $203 −$200 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $122 +$145 +119%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$11 -11%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$55 +55%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $51 +$60 +119%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $202 +$132 +65%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 +$94 +307%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $41 +$74 +180%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 +$42 +42%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$192 +188%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 22 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $207 +$205 +99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 −$70 -69%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $202 +$99 +49%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 +$51 +101%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $102 −$59 -58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $103 −$5 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$94 +93%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $213 −$210 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $223 +$184 +83%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $122 +$113 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes $7 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $284 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 30¢ $306 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $306 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 24¢ $53 28h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $51 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $102 30h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $294 31h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 33h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 33h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 34h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $122 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $91 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $335 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 3d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records