Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:24:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x28fc…6171 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-5%) realized −$30 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%55W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$27
other 21% −$48
world 1% +$6
crypto 1% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.0% -20.3% 43% 43% -12.1%
≤30d 7 -12.0% -20.3% 43% 43% -12.1%
≤90d 13 +8.5% -1.8% 62% 62% -11.1%
all 114 -8.6% -17.3% 48% 47% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 47% -14.6%
10% -25.2% 46% -22.8%
15% -32.4% 45% -30.2%
20% -39.1% 40% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses55 / 59
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage359d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 45¢ 26¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-41%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$74 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 +$58 +114%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $140 −$137 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $32 +$24 +73%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 16 $54 +$29 +54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $45 +$18 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $61 +$54 +88%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $26 +$10 +39%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $1 +$1 +88%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $2 +$2 +136%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-08-30? Aug 31 $1 +$1 +144%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-08-30? Aug 31 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-08-30? Aug 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-30? Aug 30 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-30? Aug 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-08-30? Aug 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-30? Aug 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-08-29? Aug 30 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Aug 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-08-29? Aug 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-08-28? Aug 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2025-08-28? Aug 29 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-28? Aug 29 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-08-28? Aug 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-08-27? Aug 28 $1 +$1 +56%
Will FC Kopenhagen win on 2025-08-27? Aug 28 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Benfica win on 2025-08-27? Aug 28 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-27? Aug 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-08-26? Aug 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-08-26? Aug 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-25? Aug 26 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25? Aug 26 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Inter win on 2025-08-25? Aug 26 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Udinese win on 2025-08-25? Aug 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Como win on 2025-08-24? Aug 25 $1 +$1 +144%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24? Aug 25 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24? Aug 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24? Aug 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-23? Aug 24 $1 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $50 6d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $79 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $70 32d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $70 32d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $32 32d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $83 32d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $54 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $63 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $45 33d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $115 33d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $61 34d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $37 34d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 71¢ $26 34d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 290d
Will Juventus win on 2025-08-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 290d
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-31? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 290d
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-08-31? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 290d
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 290d
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-08-31? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 290d
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-08-31? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 290d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.17 · official $59.73 · 197 history records