Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2903…9203 sports 1624 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,476 (+3%) realized +$7,095 · open +$381
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%1001W / 617L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$2,734est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,831
7 days−$27,236
14 days−$17,526
30 days−$3,265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$5,107
other 2% −$1,325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 299 -24.8% -32.0% 49% 40% -49.7%
≤30d 977 -1.3% -10.7% 63% 52% -11.4%
≤90d 1618 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 54% -8.3%
all 1618 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 54% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 54% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 45% -17.1%
15% -26.4% 38% -25.1%
20% -33.6% 29% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$136 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$805
Realized+$7,095
Unrealized+$381
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses1001 / 617
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$2,734
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1618 / 1624
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$164
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 41¢ 100¢ $306 $746 +$440 (+144%)
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Carolina Troiano Nadia Podoroska 97¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz Dune Vaissaud 86¢ 100¢ $23 $26 +$4 (+16%)
ITF San Gregorio: Anastasia Abbagnato vs Ruien Zhang Anastasia Abbagnato 73¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Noa Vukadin 89¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 333 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $208 +$6 +3%
Bergs vs. Fritz: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $316 +$204 +64%
ITF Klosters: Justin Schlageter vs Patrick Zahraj Jun 17 $79 −$78 -99%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $258 −$255 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $158 +$202 +128%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
ITF Bolszewo: Sonja Zhenikhova vs Weronika Falkowska Jun 17 $27 +$2 +7%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $88 +$12 +13%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $212 +$42 +20%
Set Handicap: Voracek (-1.5) vs Schnyder (+1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
ITF Klosters: Polina Leykina vs Lara Schmidt Jun 17 $278 −$274 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Aguilar vs Almeida Jun 17 $287 +$201 +70%
ITF Irvine: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Emery Combs Jun 17 $26 +$4 +14%
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 17 $15 +$15 +105%
ITF Irvine: Maria Aytoyan vs Caroline Driscoll Jun 16 $44 +$33 +75%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $191 −$188 -98%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$57 +114%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $38 +$18 +47%
ITF Tulsa: Andrej Martin vs Matisse Farzam Jun 16 $56 +$13 +23%
Set Handicap: Torres (-1.5) vs Villanueva (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $52 −$52 -99%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $370 +$202 +55%
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Set Handicap: Safiullin (-1.5) vs Holmgren (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $152 −$149 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Set Handicap: Tabilo (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Safiullin vs Holmgren Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $285 −$281 -99%
ITF Blois: Sara Cakarevic vs Alina Granwehr Jun 16 $13 +$3 +23%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $466 +$203 +43%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $66 +$22 +32%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 16 $47 +$2 +4%
ITF Milano: Luca Potenza vs Giovanni Oradini Jun 16 $300 −$296 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Irina Balus vs Maria Toma Jun 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Golubic vs. Kenin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $138 −$136 -98%
Gombos vs. Wallin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail Jun 16 $921 +$63 +7%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $86 +$77 +90%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Han Shi Jun 16 $23 +$7 +30%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $212 −$15 -7%
ITF Blois: Astrid Lew Yan Foon vs Francesca Curmi Jun 16 $168 +$11 +7%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 15 $107 −$106 -99%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $77 +$30 +40%
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Jun 15 $69 +$6 +8%
ITF Tauste: Diana Marcinkevica vs Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez Jun 15 $178 −$175 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $138 −$136 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 97¢ $208 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 42¢ $159 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 40¢ $153 1h
Bergs vs. Fritz: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $519 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Anastasia Abbagnato vs Ruien Zhang BUY Anastasia Abbagnato 73¢ $48 4h
ITF Klosters: Justin Schlageter vs Patrick Zahraj BUY Patrick Zahraj 74¢ $79 4h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Rositsa Dencheva 55¢ $258 4h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz BUY Dune Vaissaud 86¢ $18 4h
ITF Klosters: Dune Vaissaud vs Josephine Kunz BUY Dune Vaissaud 85¢ $5 4h
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Carolina Troiano BUY Nadia Podoroska 97¢ $31 4h
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Noa Vukadin 89¢ $16 4h
Bergs vs. Fritz: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 60¢ $316 4h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo SELL Xi Luo 100¢ $360 4h
ITF Bolszewo: Sonja Zhenikhova vs Weronika Falkowska BUY Weronika Falkowska 94¢ $17 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 90¢ $94 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 78¢ $118 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 43¢ $158 6h
ITF Bolszewo: Sonja Zhenikhova vs Weronika Falkowska BUY Weronika Falkowska 93¢ $10 6h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 95¢ $29 6h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 81¢ $29 6h
Set Handicap: Voracek (-1.5) vs Schnyder (+1.5) BUY Voracek 76¢ $4 6h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 92¢ $59 7h
ITF Klosters: Polina Leykina vs Lara Schmidt BUY Lara Schmidt 57¢ $278 7h
ITF Irvine: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Emery Combs SELL Emery Combs 100¢ $30 13h
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara SELL Bruno Kuzuhara 100¢ $30 13h
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara BUY Bruno Kuzuhara 48¢ $15 14h
Set 1 Winner: Aguilar vs Almeida BUY Almeida 58¢ $287 15h
ITF Irvine: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Emery Combs BUY Emery Combs 87¢ $26 15h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 48¢ $191 16h
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf SELL Jeffrey John Wolf 100¢ $56 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $805.00 · official $805.00 (match) · 3426 history records