Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
29 0x2907…b27c sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,022 (-2%) realized −$3,082 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,986per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,060now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$310
7 days+$7,131
14 days+$7,191
30 days−$3,777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$6,036
other 33% +$1,211
sports 4% +$1,104
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.3% -17.0% 52% 43% -3.3%
≤30d 32 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 41% -12.1%
≤90d 32 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 41% -12.1%
all 32 -12.3% -20.6% 50% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 41% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 28% -20.5%
15% -35.2% 25% -28.2%
20% -41.5% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,005) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$517 vs −$753 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,060
Realized−$3,082
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3,986
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,060 +$60 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $306 +$382 +125%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $224 +$53 +24%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $174 −$136 -78%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 29 $1,009 −$83 -8%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $204 +$94 +46%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 −$28 -68%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$24 -46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,008 +$362 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $205 −$108 -53%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $102 +$214 +209%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40,031 +$1,019 +2%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $204 −$197 -96%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $15,063 +$1,628 +11%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $43,168 +$3,304 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $252 −$248 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $216 +$37 +17%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$14 -94%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$17 -67%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $232 +$43 +18%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$50 -49%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $152 +$181 +119%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $140 +$4 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +46%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $515 −$503 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $24,801 −$10,465 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 65¢ $115 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 28¢ $51 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes $37 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $174 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 38¢ $163 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 39¢ $173 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $175 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 6h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $298 6h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 65¢ $926 45h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 50¢ $51 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $1,009 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $28 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,008 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $97 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 58¢ $204 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 57¢ $113 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 18¢ $102 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes $7 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $40,031 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 82¢ $1,005 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,060.00 · official $1,060.00 (match) · 91 history records