Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2911…fc94 crypto 633 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$227 (-10%) realized −$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate69%434W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$55
14 days−$244
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 -12.0% -20.4% 79% 10% -13.3%
≤30d 632 -20.7% -28.2% 69% 8% -18.9%
≤90d 632 -20.7% -28.2% 69% 8% -18.9%
all 632 -20.7% -28.2% 69% 8% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 8% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 1% -26.7%
15% -41.4% 1% -33.8%
20% -47.1% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses434 / 198
Open positions1
Markets (closed)632 / 633
History coverage10d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$36 +386%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$12 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.13 · official $4.29 (match) · 1417 history records