Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
29 0x2912…6970 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-28%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$47
sports 19% +$11
other 18% $0
culture 12% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +52.3% +37.8% 100% 100% +40.0%
≤30d 2 +52.3% +37.8% 100% 100% +40.0%
≤90d 2 +52.3% +37.8% 100% 100% +40.0%
all 8 -28.3% -35.2% 50% 50% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 50% -28.4%
10% -41.4% 50% -35.2%
15% -47.0% 12% -41.5%
20% -52.2% 12% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage127d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$18 +73%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 21 $20 +$6 +32%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 15 $20 −$17 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2h
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY T1 57¢ $7 126d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 76¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $27 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $13 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.71 · official $29.71 (match) · 15 history records