Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2913…f04a other 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 442d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$141 (-19%) realized −$138 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days−$193
14 days−$193
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 44% −$43
politics 30% −$94
other 18% −$13
crypto 4% $0
world 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -36.1% -42.2% 50% 38% -52.8%
≤90d 9 -30.6% -37.2% 56% 44% -31.3%
all 10 -29.6% -36.3% 50% 40% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 40% -31.0%
10% -42.4% 30% -37.6%
15% -48.0% 10% -43.6%
20% -53.1% 10% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$42 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$138
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage442d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 51¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 08 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 08 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 08 $50 +$26 +53%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 07 $200 +$27 +14%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 09 $70 −$14 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.75 · official $151.76 (match) · 26 history records