Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2916…4304 crypto 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+6%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%38W / 18L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day152.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +10.2% -0.3% 68% 52% -4.8%
≤30d 56 +10.2% -0.3% 68% 52% -4.8%
≤90d 56 +10.2% -0.3% 68% 52% -4.8%
all 56 +10.2% -0.3% 68% 52% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 52% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 36% -13.9%
15% -18.6% 20% -22.2%
20% -26.5% 12% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses38 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day152.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $12 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records