Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x2916…6c6a crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$572 (+11%) realized +$572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate89%25W / 3L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$556
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +6.5% -3.7% 89% 57% +0.4%
≤30d 28 +6.5% -3.7% 89% 57% +0.4%
≤90d 28 +6.5% -3.7% 89% 57% +0.4%
all 28 +6.5% -3.7% 89% 57% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 57% +0.4%
10% -12.9% 21% -9.2%
15% -21.3% 7% -18.0%
20% -29.0% 4% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$73 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses25 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage3d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $203 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $203 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $203 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $204 +$71 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $203 +$63 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $202 +$34 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $205 +$98 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $202 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $202 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $202 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $203 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $201 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $203 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $203 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $203 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $204 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $205 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $203 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $205 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records