Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2917…b315 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$217 (-12%) realized −$211 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$445
7 days−$320
14 days−$320
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$259
sports 27% −$43
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.7% -27.4% 20% 20% -70.8%
≤30d 14 -6.2% -15.1% 36% 36% -25.6%
≤90d 14 -6.2% -15.1% 36% 36% -25.6%
all 14 -6.2% -15.1% 36% 36% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 36% -25.6%
10% -23.2% 29% -32.7%
15% -30.7% 29% -39.2%
20% -37.5% 29% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +88% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$69 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage22d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 36¢ 36¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-3.5) United States 6¢ 6¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $26 +$121 +474%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $936 +$167 +18%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $178 −$178 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $41 +$35 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 29 $5 +$6 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $204 1h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 6¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 43h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $51 2d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 17¢ $26 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 5d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $450 14d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 14d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $190 15d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 18d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $258 18d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $256 19d
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 34¢ $10 20d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 30¢ $10 20d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 20d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $127 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $11 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.03 · official $239.03 (match) · 47 history records