Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
29 0x291a…8ab4 world 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$4
world 17% −$2
crypto 15% $0
finance 13% −$2
politics 11% +$2
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -3.7% -12.8% 36% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -3.7% -12.8% 36% 9% -9.8%
all 11 -3.7% -12.8% 36% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 9% -9.8%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage28d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 22 $81 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $184 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $187 +$2 +1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $182 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $7 −$2 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $233 $0 -0%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $212 −$3 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $14 −$4 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $81 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $184 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $81 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes $10 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $77 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $90 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $189 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $187 13d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $184 14d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $182 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes $5 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $4 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $4 16d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $242 19d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $243 19d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $236 20d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $236 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $233 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $233 20d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No $4 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes $9 27d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $204 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes $14 27d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $196 28d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No $15 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records