Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x291c…73d8 crypto 1046 markets active 4h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$883 (-37%) realized −$883 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%255W / 790L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$298
other 0% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 218 -4.3% -13.4% 92% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 1045 -28.8% -35.6% 24% 4% -32.3%
all 1045 -28.8% -35.6% 24% 4% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.6% 4% -32.3%
10% ← realistic here -41.8% 4% -38.8%
15% -47.4% 4% -44.7%
20% -52.5% 4% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$883
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses255 / 790
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1045 / 1046
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1045 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 43h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.83 (match) · 3500 history records