Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x291c…99b0 crypto 281 markets active 2d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-2%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate73%205W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$17
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$37
politics 13% −$1
other 12% −$1
sports 12% −$25
world 6% +$4
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 25% -22.8%
≤30d 32 -7.2% -16.1% 59% 28% -21.6%
≤90d 180 -2.3% -11.6% 89% 5% -12.1%
all 280 -1.7% -11.1% 73% 4% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -11.1%
10% -19.6% 2% -19.6%
15% -27.4% 2% -27.4%
20% -34.5% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses205 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 281
History coverage135d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 54¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$2 -27%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $7 +$5 +76%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 Jun 07 $5 +$18 +365%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $5 +$3 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $9 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1AM ET May 21 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $16 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET May 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3PM ET May 14 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11AM ET May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $5 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 5d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Knicks 57¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 82¢ $5 7d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 66¢ $8 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $5 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 80¢ $10 9d
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 37¢ $6 9d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $6 10d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 10d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $5 11d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 12d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 62¢ $8 12d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $5 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $7 13d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 70¢ $9 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $8 13d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 17d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.01 · official $8.01 (match) · 1066 history records