Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

29 0x2920…6fda sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$168 (+21%) realized +$169 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$117per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+17.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+30.1%	+17.7%	67%	67%	+11.8%
≤30d	6	+30.1%	+17.7%	67%	67%	+11.8%
≤90d	6	+30.1%	+17.7%	67%	67%	+11.8%
all	6	+30.1%	+17.7%	67%	67%	+11.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.7%	67%	+11.8%
10%	+6.5%	67%	+1.1%
15%	-3.8%	67%	-8.7%
20%	-13.2%	67%	-17.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$104 vs −$126 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$123

Realized+$169

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$117

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	50¢	$124	$123	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$135	+$126	+93%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$122	+$123	+101%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$165	−$163	-99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$91	+$89	+97%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$91	−$90	-98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$86	+$77	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$126	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$135	20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5	BUY Under	49¢	$122	41h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$165	2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$91	4d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	BUY Under	50¢	$91	4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$86	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.28 · official $123.28 (match) · 11 history records