Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2923…68ee sports 443 markets active 6h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%233W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$36
14 days−$87
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$174
other 15% −$15
crypto 3% −$9
world 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -3.0% -12.3% 46% 25% -13.3%
≤30d 239 -3.0% -12.3% 46% 28% -13.2%
≤90d 407 -2.9% -12.2% 51% 30% -12.7%
all 443 -1.9% -11.3% 53% 30% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 30% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 17% -20.6%
15% -27.5% 10% -28.3%
20% -34.6% 6% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses233 / 210
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)443 / 443
History coverage96d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 443 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $18 +$3 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5 −$4 -81%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$7 +115%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $11 −$2 -20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 −$3 -13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $12 −$9 -76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $12 +$1 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $5 −$3 -54%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +107%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$6 -63%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $12 −$4 -37%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $9 +$6 +68%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 +$4 +80%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $13 −$3 -21%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $20 −$1 -7%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 −$3 -64%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $17 +$2 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$4 -23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +29%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $8 +$2 +23%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $36 −$3 -8%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $31 −$1 -2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $16 +$5 +33%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $12 −$2 -16%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $6 +$1 +9%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $22 −$1 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $18 −$1 -4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $13 +$1 +9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $14 −$3 -19%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $13 +$1 +7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $11 −$2 -17%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $14 −$2 -13%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$6 +59%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$2 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $15 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles $1 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 80¢ $12 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 35¢ $5 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $6 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $6 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 60¢ $9 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $11 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 70¢ $11 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 74¢ $5 31h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 74¢ $6 31h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 20¢ $3 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 65¢ $10 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $13 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 31h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 86¢ $13 32h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 80¢ $12 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 32h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 81¢ $12 32h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 39¢ $6 33h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $5 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 34h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 17¢ $2 34h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 34¢ $5 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2291 history records