Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2924…0f31 sports 279 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$25,658 (+10%) realized +$25,716 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +216% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +133% what you keep after slip
Net edge+133%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%137W / 139L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$929per market
Trades / day89.7pace
Fees−$5,419est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,918
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+185.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +559.7% +496.9% 49% 49% -13.4%
≤30d 258 +229.4% +198.1% 48% 34% -11.4%
≤90d 276 +215.8% +185.8% 50% 36% -10.1%
all 276 +215.8% +185.8% 50% 36% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover89.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +185.8% 36% -10.1%
10% +158.4% 25% -18.7%
15% ← realistic here +133.4% 20% -26.6%
20% +110.6% 18% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +216% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$755) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +91% → late +340% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$149 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$25,716
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses137 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$5,419
Open positions3
Markets (closed)276 / 279
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$929
Trades / day89.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 8¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-99%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $785 −$3 -0%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $411 +$46 +11%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $17 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $720 −$483 -67%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $149 −$25 -17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,896 +$55 +3%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $512 +$212 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $621 −$72 -12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $540 +$120 +22%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,007 −$142 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,134 −$22 -2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $187 −$68 -36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $252 −$91 -36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $188 +$146 +78%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $491 +$66 +13%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $1,878 +$509 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $575 +$131 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $42 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $286 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $572 +$186 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $266 −$67 -25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $281 +$119 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,861 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $629 −$84 -13%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $962 +$40 +4%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $412 −$17 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $985 +$216 +22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $70 −$33 -48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $978 $0 -0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,067 −$537 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $307 −$299 -97%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $163 −$82 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,691 +$321 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $575 +$76 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $300 +$119 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $598 +$49 +8%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1,327 +$65 +5%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $39 −$25 -65%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $320 +$41 +13%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $70 −$23 -33%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,032 −$93 -9%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,178 −$250 -21%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $310 +$9 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $451 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $680 +$88 +13%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $325 +$24 +7%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,219 +$52 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 6¢ $8 54m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $13 57m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 92¢ $118 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 93¢ $129 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 91¢ $318 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 91¢ $73 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 80¢ $562 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 1¢ $0 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 2¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 78¢ $109 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 8¢ $64 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 78¢ $434 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 73¢ $403 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 72¢ $109 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 29¢ $7 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 21¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $13 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $8 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 29¢ $199 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $213 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 31¢ $30 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $38 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 33¢ $25 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $31 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 45¢ $321 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $165 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $12 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 37¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 40¢ $46 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports 41¢ $40 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.37 · official $0.36 · 3500 history records