Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2928…f7a9 crypto 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$240 (-5%) realized −$147 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%63W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$209
14 days+$79
30 days−$584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$634
world 2% −$33
sports 0% −$5
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 35% -2.4%
≤30d 223 -8.8% -17.5% 28% 28% -21.5%
≤90d 223 -8.8% -17.5% 28% 28% -21.5%
all 223 -8.8% -17.5% 28% 28% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 28% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 28% -29.1%
15% -32.6% 28% -35.9%
20% -39.2% 27% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$18 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses63 / 160
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)223 / 228
History coverage24d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $76 $43 −$33 (-44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 15¢ 18¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Up 16¢ 4¢ $40 $9 −$31 (-79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 24¢ 6¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-77%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$26 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$25 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$66 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$50 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$201 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$56 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$65 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$91 +247%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$87 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $63 +$91 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$43 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$102 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $43 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.68 · official $95.10 · 1045 history records