Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x292b…23ce weather 1360 markets active 2d ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$287 (-0%) realized −$288 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1335W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$119
14 days+$607
30 days−$771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% +$255
culture 4% −$2,080
sports 2% +$395
other 1% +$26
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.5% -21.8% 54% 46% +3.9%
≤30d 76 -1.1% -10.5% 86% 14% -17.3%
≤90d 1358 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 1% -11.0%
all 1358 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 1% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 1% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 1% -19.5%
15% -25.4% 1% -27.3%
20% -32.7% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$112 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1335 / 23
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1358 / 1360
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ 14¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $119 +$102 +86%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $38 +$4 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $209 +$104 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$27 +52%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $13 +$16 +122%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $58 −$58 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $114 +$103 +90%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $32 −$32 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $85 −$84 -99%
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $47 −$27 -57%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 12 $19 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $28 −$28 -98%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $65 +$15 +24%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $96 +$185 +194%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 10 $54 −$4 -8%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $153 +$47 +31%
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea Jun 09 $322 +$273 +85%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 03 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on May 28? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C or below on May 28? May 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 27? May 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on May 27? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 27? May 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on May 27? May 28 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on May 27? May 28 $299 +$1 +0%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 26 $209 −$205 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 18? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 19? May 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on May 1 May 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 18? May 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 19? May 25 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 14°C or below on May 19? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on May 19? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on May 18? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on May 19? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C or below on May 19? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on May 19? May 25 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 47°F or below on May May 25 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Spirit Academy 32¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Spirit Academy 32¢ $39 2d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 28¢ $38 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $3 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $119 2d
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 66¢ $209 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 13¢ $5 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $58 3d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 22¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $22 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 52¢ $114 4d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $85 4d
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A SELL Saab $0 6d
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY Gatorian 19¢ $24 6d
Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Saab (BO1) - ROG Journey Group A BUY Saab 17¢ $17 6d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Anubis Gaming 27¢ $19 6d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 27¢ $20 6d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 27¢ $28 6d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY G2 Ares 42¢ $28 7d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $3 7d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $3 7d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 28¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage SELL Legacy 50¢ $49 8d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY Legacy 53¢ $54 10d
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 54¢ $137 10d
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 53¢ $54 10d
Ilkley: Francesco Maestrelli vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 53¢ $132 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.33 · official $58.33 (match) · 3500 history records