Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x292b…2676 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
sports 21% −$14
other 18% $0
politics 8% +$16
culture 3% +$5
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +4.3% -5.7% 33% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +4.3% -5.7% 33% 7% -9.4%
all 53 +3.2% -6.6% 40% 9% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 9% -8.7%
10% -15.6% 6% -17.4%
15% -23.7% 4% -25.4%
20% -31.2% 4% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage490d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $36 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $55 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $0 $0 -19%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $3 $0 -0%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $4 −$1 -23%
Florida Atlantic vs. UAB Mar 05 $21 −$7 -32%
Tulane vs. East Carolina Mar 05 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Ajax vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? Mar 05 $7 $0 -1%
Will Fenerbahce win on 2025-03-06? Mar 05 $15 $0 -0%
50 or more bps decrease in ECB interest rates after March 2025 meeting Mar 05 $22 $0 -0%
Morehead State vs. Lindenwood Mar 05 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 34-38m viewers? Mar 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 05 $7 +$1 +17%
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 05 $6 $0 +6%
Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 05 $13 +$3 +24%
Will Coralie Fargeat win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Sub Mar 02 $6 $0 -1%
Louisville vs. Virginia Tech Mar 02 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 02 $10 $0 +0%
Adin Ross unbanned from Twitch today? Feb 25 $7 −$5 -75%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Feb 25 $11 $0 -0%
Austin Peay vs. West Georgia Feb 25 $11 $0 +0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 25 $11 $0 +0%
Army vs. Lafayette Feb 25 $11 $0 -2%
UIC vs. Northern Iowa Feb 25 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 30m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 12h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 21d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $36 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $36 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $40 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $40 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $22 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $37 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $19 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $19 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $0 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 177 history records