Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

29
0x292c…43bf
crypto · 70 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,118 -67%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,105 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$1,105
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 34
Open positions27
Markets (closed)43 / 70
History coverage102d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 27 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days−$1,107
30 days−$1,107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 6¢ 30¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+394%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+152%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 14¢ 28¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+96%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+68%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? No 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? No 4¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3 $0 -13%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Jun 03 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Jun 03 $58 −$50 -86%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 06 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? Apr 05 $6 +$4 +71%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 04 $10 $0 -4%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? Mar 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 12 $14 −$1 -9%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? Mar 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Mar 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Mar 09 $3 $0 -2%
Discord IPO before 2027? Mar 03 $41 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 31% −$304
world 25% −$398
economics 16% −$152
finance 10% −$161
tech 9% −$104
other 7% +$1
politics 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27m
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 4¢ $2 1h
Will Neal Shipley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 16¢ $2 5h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $2 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-59.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 26 -93.6% -94.2% 0% 0% -98.9%
≤90d 35 -68.1% -71.1% 20% 3% -78.8%
all 43 -55.7% -59.9% 21% 2% -71.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.9% 2% -71.4%
10% -63.7% 2% -74.1%
15% -67.2% 2% -76.6%
20% -70.4% 2% -78.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.53 · official $40.53 (match) · 134 history records