Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
29 0x292c…6e9e politics 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$10
politics 30% −$6
sports 15% −$5
crypto 7% −$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,020) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage80d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,054 $0 +0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $1,020 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,968 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $1,001 −$3 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 15 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $1,059 −$5 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $1,047 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 14 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 02 $133 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 48m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 57m
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $710 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $288 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 1h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 22h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,039 22h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 22h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 22h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $148 22h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 22h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 23h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $783 23h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 23h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 23h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,052 23h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 29d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 29d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 29d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $12 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 29d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $11 29d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 29d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 29d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 31d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 31d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.21 · official $74.21 (match) · 103 history records