Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
29 0x292f…918d crypto 234 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$426 (+4%) realized +$426 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%147W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$32
14 days+$291
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$232
other 42% +$513
sports 13% −$161
world 1% −$1
politics 1% +$153
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.4% -5.6% 44% 44% -16.0%
≤30d 13 +84.1% +66.5% 62% 62% +44.4%
≤90d 68 +12.0% +1.3% 57% 38% +2.0%
all 233 +3.5% -6.3% 63% 40% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 40% -7.4%
10% -15.3% 25% -16.3%
15% -23.5% 18% -24.4%
20% -31.0% 13% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$426
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses147 / 86
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage148d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $342 −$47 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $28 +$6 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $14 +$7 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $16 +$3 +19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $36 +$321 +888%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $53 −$41 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $175 +$33 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $55 −$21 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $53 −$32 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $167 −$34 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $53 +$6 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $42 −$41 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $193 +$197 +102%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 $0 +42%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $163 −$30 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $233 +$126 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $247 +$15 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $31 −$20 -66%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $186 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $177 +$13 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $185 −$6 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $275 −$29 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $520 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $247 +$36 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $273 +$24 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $15 −$11 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $157 +$61 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $15 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $161 +$25 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $11 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $49 +$102 +207%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $289 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $133 7h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 8h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 8h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 8h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 26h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $24 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score A BUY 13¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $14 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $4 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 759 history records