Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2930…409c weather 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%60W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$5
weather 23% $0
politics 15% −$4
culture 8% $0
sports 7% −$10
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -0.0% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -3.1% -12.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
all 144 -5.2% -14.3% 42% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -10.3%
10% -22.5% 0% -18.9%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses60 / 84
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage541d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 27? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 26? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on June Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 2 and 3 days? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 29? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 28? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 28? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on May 29? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 27? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 27? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will "Black Phone 2" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C or below on May 27? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $23 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $23 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $13 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $0 18h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $9 18h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $12 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 30h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $6 32h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $13 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 37h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $9 44h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $7 45h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $7 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.21 · official $32.21 (match) · 316 history records