Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2932…3ae8 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$569 (-15%) realized −$600 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%32W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$108
14 days−$157
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$159
sports 18% −$170
crypto 8% −$65
economics 8% −$127
politics 4% −$34
world 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -29.5% -36.3% 23% 18% -20.0%
≤30d 29 -33.6% -39.9% 24% 21% -26.0%
≤90d 38 -41.2% -46.8% 21% 18% -32.7%
all 129 -35.8% -41.9% 25% 22% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 22% -25.5%
10% -47.5% 22% -32.6%
15% -52.6% 22% -39.1%
20% -57.2% 16% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$17 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$580
Realized−$600
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses32 / 97
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)129 / 133
History coverage418d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $360 $296 −$65 (-18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $232 +$67 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $52 +$28 (+118%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$21 +70%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $128 −$8 -6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 +$61 +74%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$14 -27%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $77 −$5 -7%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $8 −$2 -29%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 17 $3 −$1 -16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $148 +$9 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$24 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $9 −$7 -74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$14 +68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +108%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 22? May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $30 −$26 -89%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $3 +$1 +46%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $77 −$76 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 27 $15 −$2 -14%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 27 $25 −$1 -5%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 27 $15 −$12 -82%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 08 $20 −$1 -6%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 31 $20 $0 +2%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 31 $4 −$2 -49%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $10 +$5 +47%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-03? Jan 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $117 −$106 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $52 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $81 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $10 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $11 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 5h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $142 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $19 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $58 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.91 · official $580.32 (match) · 356 history records