Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2936…07f5 crypto 1884 markets active 3d ago coverage 140d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,547 (-13%) realized −$2,547 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%259W / 1633L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days−$260
14 days−$246
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$3,350
other 29% −$430
world 1% +$126
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -80.6% -82.4% 5% 5% -43.3%
≤30d 113 -67.9% -71.0% 8% 8% -34.3%
≤90d 934 -44.4% -49.7% 13% 13% -29.4%
all 1892 -41.7% -47.2% 14% 13% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.2% 13% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here -52.3% 13% -36.2%
15% -56.9% 13% -42.4%
20% -61.1% 13% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$8 · ×4.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,547
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses259 / 1633
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1892 / 1884
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1892 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Drita win on 2025-12-18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will KF Shkëndija 79 win on 2025-12-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-10? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-01-10? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-01-11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-01-04? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2025-12-18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-03? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-19? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-21? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UMF Breiðablik win on 2025-12-18? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-12-21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-03? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-01-02? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-24? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-11? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records