Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
29 0x2936…6c5f weather 590 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,990 (-5%) realized −$3,337 · open −$653
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%224W / 363L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$4,794
14 days−$4,328
30 days−$3,986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$3,283
weather 20% −$979
sports 17% +$40
crypto 2% −$1,223
tech 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -59.4% -63.2% 24% 20% -17.1%
≤30d 95 -19.5% -27.1% 35% 32% -15.6%
≤90d 587 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 38% -15.3%
all 587 -20.6% -28.2% 38% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 38% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 36% -23.4%
15% -41.3% 35% -30.8%
20% -47.1% 24% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$59 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$4,982
Realized−$3,337
Unrealized−$653
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses224 / 363
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions3
Markets (closed)587 / 590
History coverage64d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $2,360 $3,873 +$1,513 (+64%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 81¢ 100¢ $510 $623 +$113 (+22%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 88¢ 100¢ $418 $473 +$54 (+13%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $189 $7 −$183 (-97%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 22¢ 0¢ $468 $6 −$461 (-99%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,820 −$1,363 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,451 −$4,314 -79%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12,543 +$877 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,690 +$1,608 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$17 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,878 +$1,175 +30%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $284 −$43 -15%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 −$195 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,214 +$2,632 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,026 +$106 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $795 +$59 +7%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $364 +$53 +14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $427 −$427 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $508 +$412 +81%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $420 −$24 -6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $656 +$360 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,070 −$5,554 -92%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $290 +$110 +38%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,297 −$1,223 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $729 +$126 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 9? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 5? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 5? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 9? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 9? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 9? Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 5? Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in May? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 10? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 14 $207 −$47 -23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $345 −$345 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in May? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 9? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 10? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on May Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 10m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $101 10m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 12m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $54 20m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $496 34m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 35m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $259 36m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 19¢ $5 40m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 19¢ $92 40m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 20¢ $60 40m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 41m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 41m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 41m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 43m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $30 43m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $221 44m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 44m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 45m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $42 47m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $48 56m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $17 57m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 59m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $11 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $18 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $57 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $73 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $64 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $429 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,981.68 · official $4,812.58 · 2312 history records