Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

29 0x2937…694e other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$234 (+4%) realized +$226 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%3W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$311per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$102

7 days−$102

14 days−$102

30 days−$102

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)+8.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-34.4%	-40.6%	0%	0%	-45.9%
≤30d	6	-34.4%	-40.6%	0%	0%	-45.9%
≤90d	10	-43.2%	-48.6%	0%	0%	-43.2%
all	15	+19.3%	+8.0%	20%	20%	-6.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.0%	20%	-6.1%
10%	-2.4%	20%	-15.1%
15%	-11.8%	20%	-23.3%
20%	-20.4%	20%	-30.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +86% → late -39% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,475 vs −$350 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.05 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage

Net worth$258

Realized+$226

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses3 / 12

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage175d

Avg bet$311

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	61¢	72¢	$50	$59	+$9 (+19%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$51	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	59¢	58¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$49	$49	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 26	$20	$0	-1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 26	$33	−$2	-6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$50	−$2	-3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 26	$50	$0	-1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$48	-95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Apr 21	$143	−$72	-50%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Apr 21	$134	−$10	-8%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Apr 15	$100	−$18	-18%
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	Apr 11	$10	−$10	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Mar 24	$502	+$3,679	+733%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	Mar 24	$500	−$474	-95%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Feb 28	$402	+$387	+96%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Feb 28	$410	+$358	+87%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	Feb 04	$3,512	−$3,512	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	43¢	$20	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	57¢	$31	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	56¢	$31	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	45¢	$50	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	82¢	$49	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	84¢	$50	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	3¢	$3	21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$33	23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	84¢	$50	23h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	42¢	$20	23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	84¢	$50	23h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	24h
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY Yes	70¢	$72	65d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	SELL Yes	68¢	$72	65d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY Yes	68¢	$72	65d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	SELL No	48¢	$72	65d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	BUY No	35¢	$52	69d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	SELL No	15¢	$52	70d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	BUY No	23¢	$82	71d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	SELL Yes	18¢	$82	71d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY Yes	22¢	$100	76d
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	76d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	SELL Yes	2¢	$26	94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	BUY Yes	29¢	$500	117d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$110	118d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.80 · official $257.81 (match) · 42 history records